Main Pathways of Carbon Reduction in Cities under the Target of Carbon Peaking: A Case Study of Nanjing, China

As a designated national low-carbon pilot city, Nanjing faces the challenge of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions while experiencing rapid economic growth. This study developed localized Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model specifically for constructed four different development scenarios. By utilizing Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition, Tapio decoupling elasticity coefficient, comparing emission reduction effects individual measures their cross-elasticity reduction, this investigated key factors path characteristics in toward its peak target by 2030. The results indicate that: (i) could reach about 3.48 million tons 2025 if are strengthened; (ii) main elements influencing Nanjing’s include controlling industrial consumption, restructuring industry, promoting construction new power system, developing green transportation; (iii) Controlling changing structure have greater impact on than other measures, both synergistic effect. Therefore, should prioritize these two strategies as most effective methods to reduce emissions. Additionally, slow down growth urban emissions, policies aimed at intensity be formulated. For instance, integration innovation industries within city region, such vehicles, materials, big data, accelerated, proportion clean areas increased. LEAP (Nanjing) has successfully explored pathway provided policy guidance optimal transformation cities early peaking.